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Prediction for CME (2026-07-02T02:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-02T02:36Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47258/-1
CME Note: CME associated with M4.2-class solar flare in Active Region 14799 located near N17W39; the CME is comprised of a separate brighter bulk seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2 and seen to the east-northeast in STEREO A COR2; the fainter shock is extremely wide relative to the bulk and is seen faintly all the way from due west to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2 and from the north to the southeast in STEREO A COR2A. The eruption is characterized by a circular shock front seen in EUV imagery, particularly in GOES SUVI 284 imagery as there was an ongoing SDO AIA outage at the time. Preliminarily closing as non-arrival; analysis is ongoing. | Arrival signature: Characterized by a reconfiguration of magnetic field components and other solar wind parameters beginning most clearly at 2026-07-04T12:00Z, following an enhancement from the previous interplanetary shock at 2026-07-03T11:17Z and CME arrival at 2026-07-03T18:45Z. At this start time, solar wind speeds jump from ~590 km/s to ~640 km/s and density rises from ~0.68p/cc to ~24.81p/cc. Starting at 2026-07-04T11:37Z a rise in temperature from ~65k Kelvin to ~441k Kelvin is observed. Starting around 2026-07-04T12:30Z, B_total temporarily drops from ~14nT to ~9.47nT, rising back to a peak 19.43nT by 2026-07-04T14:06Z. This third enhancement in the solar wind within this arrival signature starting at 2026-07-03T11:17Z is associated with the likely combined arrival of CMEs 2026-07-02T02:36Z and 2026-07-01T21:12Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-04T12:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-04T17:21Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-07-02 06:59
 - Time at C2: 2026-07-02 02:36
 - Radial speed: 728.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: N27W00
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 624.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2026-07-04 17:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.77 hours)
Lead Time: 31.80 hour(s)
Difference: -5.35 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2026-07-03T04:12Z
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